Tahoe Donner Real Estate Sales Information – January

Wishing You A Healthy, Happy and Prosperous New Year!

Today, January 3, 2011 there are 90 homes available or for sale in Tahoe Donner. Furthermore, 74 of the homes offered for sale are standard sales, 12 of the available homes are offered as short sales and 4 REO’s, (Bank owned properties). Also, 14 single family homes are currently in escrow or pending sale. There are another 8 short sales pending bank approval. Moreover, pending sales range in price from $345,000 to $899,950.

Some perspective to Tahoe Donner market conditions: Tahoe Donner had a total of 222 homes close escrow in 2010, basically a parity to 2009 were 225 homes close escrow, compared to 2008 in which only 193 sales were consummated.

Home site sales saw modest improvement; with 38 home sites available, currently 3 home sites are in escrow or pending sale. Also, 21 home sites closed escrow in 2010 compared to 12 home sites which closed escrow in 2009. Currently, the pricing for available home sites run from a low of $64,500 to a high of $525,000.

Sales Statistics
for NEVADA County CA
Realist’s most recent recording date for this county is 12/21/2010
Single Family Residence

Time Period        Number of Sales        Median Sale Price
Nov 2010             101                                $339,000
Nov 2009             113                                $300,000
Oct 2010              124                                $277,500
Oct 2009              146                                $330,000
2010 YTD            1,282                             $296,750
2009                     1,294                             $329,250
Time Period        Number of Sales        Median Sale Price
Nov 2010             6                                     $272,000
Nov 2009             11                                   $362,000
Oct 2010              8                                     $262,500
Oct 2009              13                                   $390,000
2010 YTD            96                                   $313,500
2009                   107                                  $317,000

Sleepy Housing Market to Awaken in 2011

The housing market will remain in hibernation this winter and, without the benefit of a federal home buying tax credit, keep snoring right on through the spring, according to two recent studies.

However, by the third quarter of 2011, pent up demand could stir the market from its slumber and generate a modest, groggy recovery.

During its recent NARdigras 2010 Realtor Conference and Expo, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) forecast an “uneven recovery” next year.

“Existing-home sales have shown some improvement, but the foreclosure moratorium is likely to cause some disruption and contribute to an uneven sales performance in the months ahead,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.

“Tight credit and appraisals coming in below a negotiated price continue to constrain the market. Nonetheless, there appears to be a pent-up demand that eventually will be unleashed as banks resolve their issues with foreclosures and the labor market improves,” Yun said.

Likewise, the recent Fiserv Case-Shiller Home Price Insight” reported that the home buyer tax credit delayed the housing market’s slide to the bottom, and that will put off the recovery until late 2011.

Fiserv and Moody’s Economy.com expect that home prices will drop over the next four quarters in nearly all metro markets, before prices have a shot at stabilizing by the end of 2011.

“Some of the largest declines in prices will occur in markets that had strong spring and summer 2010 price increases,” said David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv. “This is because the home buyer tax credit delayed the correction in home prices that is necessary to return housing affordability to its pre-bubble levels,” Stiff added.

According to NAR, Existing-home sales, down 21.2 percent year-over-year in the third quarter this year, are forecast to drop 24.7 percent in the last quarter this year. The declines reflect the absence of the federal home buying tax credit, available this time last year, NAR said.

Next year, expect smaller sales declines of about 7 percent during the first two quarters, before sales begin to rebound with a near 26 percent year-over-year increase in sales, according to the forecast.

“We’ve added 30 million people to the U.S. population over the past 10 years, but sales are where they were in 2000, so there appears to be a sizable pent-up demand that could come to the (housing) market once the economy gathers momentum,” Yun said.

Yun said existing home sales will rise from 4.8 million this year to 5.1 million next year while housing starts are expected to rise to 716,000 in 2011 from 598,000 this year. Housing starts bottomed out at 554,000 in 2009.

The boost in sales and starts is related to favorable growth in the Gross Domestic Product. NAR says it should grow 2.0 to 2.5 percent over the next two years. A projected and much needed 1.5 million additional jobs over the next two years will push the unemployment rate down to 8 percent by 2013, but it won’t return to a normal level of about 6 percent until 2015.

Mortgage interest rates are at record lows now, but by the time housing market recovery is under way, they are expected to rise, creating an average 4.9 percent next year, Yun said.

Median prices for existing homes, nationwide at $177,100 in the third quarter this year (down 0.6 percent a year ago) are expected to continue to decline to $165,900 into the first quarter 2010, before managing $178,900 by the third quarter next year, an expected peak for the year.

New home prices, $218,000 in the third quarter, 2010 (up 2.5 percent from a year ago), are expected to continue rising each quarter in 2011 and peak out at $224,300 in the fourth quarter.